Earlier today, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences issued a press release announcing that starting in 2010, they will expand the field of Best Picture nominees to ten films.

What are they thinking?

This decision will completely undermine the integrity of the process whereby the Academy rewards excellence in film. For sixty-six years, the Academy has recognized five Best Picture nominees. During this time, when a film is awarded one of the coveted five nomination slots, there is no doubt it has achieved a remarkable honor. People remember and cherish films that have been nominated for Best Picture. It is a tag that stays with the film forever. It is a symbol of excellence that shows that a film has distinguished itself from all others.

What the Academy has done today is to severely tarnish this idea. With a plentiful ten films up for Best Picture every year, no longer will people view all the nominated films with as much respect and reverence. The value of a Best Picture nomination will be severely diluted.

No doubt there are many excellent films distributed every year. And on the surface, it may appear that the Academy is doing something wonderful, by opening its doors to let more people in. But this is not what the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences should be about. The Academy is about rewarding exceptional art, not just good films, but the best of the best. Under the current system, quality films still receive plenty of recognition. Just because a film is not nominated for Best Picture does not mean it is not a very good film. People still embrace and love these films just the same.

And if the purpose of this decision is to stem controversy, then this decision fails as well. People will still be arguing over the eleventh film left out just as they argued about the sixth.

One can only speculate about the Academy’s true motives for this decision. We hope that the predominant reason is to recognize more films. But as we explain above, this rationale is seriously flawed. There are other possible motives that are more disturbing. By having more films up for Best Picture, ratings for the show may increase. Imagine if this rule had been in effect last year. Surely “The Dark Knight” would have made the cut, and as a result, more people would have watched the show. Certainly, with an expansion of the Best Picture field, more commercially popular films will be in the mix, prompting more interest.

Is it really worth it? Is it really worth messing with the integrity of the Best Picture selection process so that some people can make a little bit more money?

For sixty-six years, films have competed vigorously for the special honor of being one of the five best films of the year. Now the Academy wants to take that away. Fortunately, there are still 254 days for the Academy to realize their mistake and reverse this decision. We will be watching intently.

No matter what some people say, it’s never too early to start looking ahead. Last year, Oscar Frenzy correctly predicted two of the five Best Picture nominees a year in advance. Based on a variety of factors, we selected “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “The Reader.” We’re especially proud of “The Reader,” as that was a film that wasn’t on a lot of people’s radars. Also, in the acting categories, we accurately predicted Kate Winslet, although we thought she would be nominated for “Revolutionary Road (which she should have),” as opposed to “The Reader.”

So now we begin anew. 2008 was an excellent year in film, one of the best years in decades. It will be a hard act to follow. But led by several very accomplished directors, it should be extremely interesting. Let’s unveil our 2010 Oscar Predictions.

Best Picture

There are many films that immediately stand out here. First would be the yet “Untitled Nelson Mandela Project,” directed by Clint Eastwood and starring Morgan Freeman. Eastwood is indeed the best director working today, but he’s also more adept at darker, more personal stories like “Million Dollar Baby” and “Gran Torino” as opposed to historical epics like “Flags of Our Fathers.” Something tells us this Mandela story may be a bit underwhelming. Peter Jackson returns with the adaptation of the bestseller “The Lovely Bones,” about a little girl who is murdered and then watches the aftermath from above. Again, we’re not sure it’ll be that easy for Jackson to make the transition from fantasy to drama. On an added note, it’s extremely rare for a Best Picture winning director to have his next film also nominated for Best Picture. Look it up.

Martin Scorsese follows up “The Departed” with “Shutter Island,” a psychological thriller/drama based on a book from Dennis Lehane (Mystic River, Gone Baby Gone). We can’t wait to see this film, starring DiCaprio, Michelle Williams, and an all-star cast. But it doesn’t quite seem like an Oscar movie. Hilary Swank shoots for Oscar number three playing Amelia Earhart in “Amelia,” directed by Mira Nair. We just have a bad feeling about this one. Nair isn’t exactly a top-tier director and this just might be too big an undertaking for her. Ang Lee continues to amaze audiences with his incredible range. This time, he’s making a movie called “Taking Woodstock,” about, you guessed it, Woodstock. There should be little doubt he’ll pull it off, but it doesn’t feel like Oscar material either. More like a crowd-pleaser. “The Green Zone” is a war movie starring Matt Damon and directed by rising star Paul Greengrass. We are hotly anticipating this film, but war movies haven’t been popular in these difficult times. We don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

Finally, there is James Cameron’s long, long awaited “Avatar.” Considering it will have been almost 12 years since his blockbuster “Titanic,” one hopes it will be great. But the early word is that it’s more of a visual treat than a moving drama. Which brings us to the five films we think WILL be nominated for Best Picture.

Biutiful
Brothers
Nine
Public Enemies
The Tree of Life

BIUTIFUL – This is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s follow-up to 2006 Best Picture nominee “Babel.” It stars Javier Bardem and is about a criminal who is confronted by a childhood friend, who also happens to be a police officer. Inarritu’s talent was apparent in “Babel” and his insight into the human condition should only improve with each film.

BROTHERS – Directed by Jim Sheridan (In America, In the Name of the Father), this film is about a man who comforts the wife of his brother who leaves for war in Afghanistan. Yes, on the surface, it reminds us of Pearl Harbor, which is not good. But the film stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Natalie Portman, and Tobey McGuire, three of the finest young talents in Hollywood. Love stories have been somewhat disfavored with the Academy recently, but this could be an exception.

NINE – Just take one look at this cast and tell us if you can believe it. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Sophia Loren, Judi Dench, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz. Wow! It’s a musical directed by Rob Marshall and we all know how well his last one did (Chicago). Now that Marshall has got Memoirs of a Geisha out of his system, he should be back to having fun and entertaining audiences with his exquisite showmanship. This film could easily lead the nominations.

PUBLIC ENEMIES Michael Mann directs Johnny Depp as legendary gangster John Dillinger and Christian Bale plays the federal agent obsessed with tracking him down. Sounds like a winner to us. Nobody does crime better than Michael Mann, who helmed the incredibly underrated 90s crime epic “Heat” starring Al Pacino and Robert De Niro. This one could rival it. With a summer release, a solid box office will only boost its Oscar chances.

THE TREE OF LIFE – Nobody really knows what this is about and that should come as little surprise since it’s directed by Terence Malick. We do know that it stars Best Actor winner Sean Penn and Brad Pitt and that intrigues us. As does the fact that it’s supposed to be about innocence lost, which although vague, seems promising in an odd sort of way. We’re thinking this film will be more “The Thin Red Line” than “The New World.”

And now, the other categories…

Best Director

It will probably be a director from one of the Best Picture nominated films. Michael Mann is long overdue, as is Jim Sheridan. Rob Marshall didn’t win for Chicago, so he might have a shot. In the end, it should come down to Mann and Marshall.

Best Actor

Many people will favor Morgan Freeman from Eastwood’s Mandela project and he’s certainly capable of giving a performance similar to Ben Kingsley in “Gandhi.” Javier Bardem is proving to be one sensational actor and he’s sure to shine in “Biutiful,” but he also just won Supporting Actor two years ago. DiCaprio, of course, is overdue, but Shutter Island may not be the right vehicle. “Theodore Roosevelt” is right around the corner. And then of course, there is the amazing Johnny Depp, with the perfect role as John Dillinger. This should be an exciting two horse race between Freeman and Depp.

Best Actress

As much as we adore Hilary Swank, three awards in ten years is just a little much. Saoirse Ronan, who wowed audiences as little Briony in “Atonement” has a very meaty role in “The Lovely Bones,” but the Academy usually rewards older actresses. Natalie Portman may get a nomination for “Brothers,” but given her vast talent, she may have to wait a little longer for a more perfect part. That means the race may boil down to Michelle Pfieffer, who plays a older woman seducing a young guy in Stephen Frears’ period romance “Cheri” and Audrey Tatou who portrays a famous French designer in “Coco avant Chanel.”

Best Supporting Actor

Jonathan Groff is said to be amazing in “Taking Woodstock,” but he may lack the clout to take home the prize on his first try. Best Actor nominee Frank Langella is back to work in the detective drama “All Good Things” and the well respected Paul Giamatti plays an aristocrat in the Leo Tolstoy drama “The Last Station.” Finally, underrated actor Mark Ruffalo should get notice for playing Leo’s partner in the creepy “Shutter Island.”

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique attracted lavish praise at Sundance for her performance in “Precious,” but it’s a little hard to imagine her as an Academy Award winner. That being said, a couple of ladies from “Shutter Island,” Emily Mortimer and Michelle Williams could duke it out for the statuette.

And the winners are:

Best Picture: Public Enemies

Best Director: Michael Mann, Public Enemies

Best Actor: Johnny Depp, Public Enemies

Best Actress: Audrey Tatou, Coco avant Chanel

Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Last Station

Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams, Shutter Island

11:53: Slumdog fulfills its destiny by capturing the biggest prize of them all, best picture. The film goes home with eight trophies tonight. What an improbable journey for a small movie. It is also the first Best Picture win for small studio Fox Searchlight. Congratulations!

It was a very entertaining show overall. Hugh Jackman certainly surpassed expectations. There also were not a lot of big surprises. All in all a fun night. Thanks tuning in.

And, if you’re curious, Oscar Frenzy finished 19 out of 24.

11:43: Sean Penn wins for Milk. That’s somewhat unexpected. Sean Penn did completely immerse himself into the role of Harvey Milk. He was also recognized by the Screen Actor’s Guild. Too bad for Mickey Rourke. It was a great run. This marks the second best actor win for Sean Penn in five years. He now joins Tom Hanks and Dustin Hoffman as contemporary actors with multiple best actor wins.

11:36: It’s nice that they haven’t played anyone off-stage yet this year.

11:32: Winslet just won best actress. Wonder if the vote was close between Winslet and Streep. Winslet is as deserving of this award as anyone. she has consistently played breathtaking roles and pushed herself to the limit. She could be the next Meryl Streep.

11:27: Slumdog has won 7 Oscars with Best Picture to come. The biggest upsets so far have been Departures for Foreign Film and La Maison in the Animated Short category. Will there be another upset in Best Actor or Best Actress?

11:21: Slumdog wins for best director.

11:05: Departures takes best foreign film. Oscar Frenzy is 16/20 and Julia is dancing with joy after predicting the win in her pool.

11:01: “Jai Ho” from Slumdog wins. We are 16/19.

10:54: Slumdog takes best score. It stands to win 8 awards. That would be the highest total since Return of the King.

10:46: Shortest honorary speech ever.

10:44: Does every Oscar montage really warrant Coldplay?

10:36: Why aren’t they playing the winning film’s score when someone from that film wins? We miss that.

10:35: Slumdog wins film editing. It is really efficient to have one presenter present multiple awards that are similar. The awards feel much faster this year.

10:31: Slumdog takes sound mixing. Drat! We predicted Dark Knight.

10:29: Sound editing goes to The Dark Knight. This means that there will not be a Slumdog sweep.

10:27: Button takes visual effects.

10:18: Smile Pinki wins in an upset for best documentary short.

10:15: Man on Wire wins. It’s a fascinating story and we can see how a film that depicts the World Trade Center would be irresistible to the Academy.

10:08: Ledger wins for best supporting actor. This is a wonderful moment. Heath Ledger was an astonishing actor who was steadfastly devoted to his craft and always looking for ways to challenge himself. Bravo!

10:05: And now, it’s time for another awkward acting award presentation. This is just about the dumbest thing the the Oscars has done to the presentation format, with the exception of the year when they presented awards to the winners in the audience section.

9:46: Best live action short is Toyland.

9:36: Slumdog takes screenplay. This is the first time since 1999 (American Beauty) that a film won for cinematography without being nominated for art direction. We are 8/9.

9:27: These montages divided up by film genre are actually pretty entertaining

9:21: The Dutchess takes costume design. Button wins best makeup.

9:18: Benjamin Button takes art direction. With 13 nominations, you gotta think that The Curious Case of Benjamin will win some. Here’s the first.

9:10: La Maison en Petits Cubes wins best short film, animated. We are 4/5.

9:03: WALL-E takes best animated feature. Should we just pencil in UP! for next year?

9:01: Here comes the first of many awards for Slumdog Millionaire. Best adapted screenplay goes to Slumdog. We are 2/3.

8:58: And the winner for best original screenplay is Dustin Lance Black for Milk.

8:53: It’s nice to see Tiny Fey and Steve Martin present. Can they present every award?

8:45: And Penelope Cruz wins supporting actress. We are 1/1.

8:43: This is a pleasant surprise, production value wise, but it’s always been a nice tradition to see last year’s supporting actor present this award. Also, where did the clips go? If they do these personal introductions for all of the acting awards, the ceremony will never end.

8:38: That opening number was the most expensive-looking cheap production we’ve ever seen.

8:36: Poor The Reader. I don’t think this is a good sign.

8:34: Are the Craigslist dancers actually from Craigslist?

8:30: And here we go. It’s odd to have such a good-looking host who can sing. The Oscars definitely feel very different this year.

8:20: Welcome to our fourth annual Academy Awards LiveBlog! Stay with us as we give you the winners as they are announced. We’ll also offer instant reactions and forecast what is to come based on initial results. A big question on people’s minds tonight is just how far will Slumdog Millionaire go? This little film that swept all the critics’ awards now stands at the gates of Oscar History. Will it truly live up to the hype? We shall see. No matter what, there are bound to be some interesting surprises tonight.

8:00: The show starts in 30 minutes. Looking forward to a possible Rourke acceptance speech.