Well, what better time to look ahead than the day after the big show. Last year, we correctly forecast “Atonement” as a Best Picture nominee one-year-in-advance. Two years ago, we nailed “The Departed.” This year, we hope to improve on our track record. As you will see, there are some heavy hitters coming up later in 2008, films with big stars AND big directors. It could be one of the most competitive seasons in recent Oscar history. Here are the names of the Best Picture films we think will be announced on nominations morning.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)

David Fincher directs Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett in this story, based on a F. Scott Fitzgerald book, about a man who ages in reverse. The concept sounds positively intriguing to us and every single major player attached is coming off a big hit. Fincher directed last year’s underrated “Zodiac,” Blanchett was nominated twice for “The Golden Age” and “I’m Not There” and Brad Pitt exceeded expectations in “The Assasination of Jesse James.” The film also features current Supporting Actress winner Tilda Swinton. Put them all together and it could be nothing short of magic.

Australia (20th Century Fox)

After a long hiatus, Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge) is back with this epic love story about two people who embark on a journey herding cattle across the outback, and then must survive numerous obstacles including bombing by Japanese forces. Once again, Luhrmann has enlisted the services of his leading lady Nicole Kidman and teamed her with the versatile Hugh Jackman. We have little doubt the chemistry will be there between the co-stars, so the big question is whether the historical elements will mix in well with the personal story. Luhrmann’s attention to detail should hopefully make the film more “Gladiator” than “Alexander.”

The Reader (The Weinstein Company)

Based on the best-selling book by Bernard Schlink, the story chronicles the relationship between a young boy and a woman accused of Nazi war crimes. The story spans many decades and takes many turns along the way. Stephen Daldry (The Hours) directs Academy Award nominees Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes. This film screams prestige and bears some resemblance to “Atonement.” The big challenge will be whether it can satisfy fans of the book. We think it will.

The Changeling (Universal)

Clint Eastwood is back and that usually strikes fear in the hearts of other directors with hopes of adding a gold statute to their collection. This time, he’s got a story about a mother whose son is kidnapped. When he is returned, she starts to suspect that it is not really him. Angelina Jolie plays the mom and Academy Award nominee Amy Ryan also has a meaningful role. At first glance, the story seems more mystery and suspense than drama, but Eastwood is always a wizard at creating powerful, conflicted characters and fleshing out deeper themes in the story. It’s Mystic River meets Gone Baby Gone and to us, that’s a winning combination.

Revolutionary Road (Paramount, Dreamworks)

This is the big one. The director is Sam Mendes, Academy Award winner for American Beauty. The co-stars are Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. You might remember them from somewhere. The story is about a married couple who have to deal with the realities of life during the depression era while raising their two small children. It’s based on a novel by Richard Yates. As of present, the film is already positioned for a mid-December release, perfect timing for next year’s Oscar season. When you reunite arguably the best young actor and actress of our generation in a story that seems to have so many potential layers, we are absolutely sold.

So now, let’s take a look at the individual races and make some projections.

Best Actor:

Sean Penn will be a contender for playing gay activist Harvey Milk in “Milk” and Benicio Del Toro will undoubtedly shine as legendary Che Guevara in “The Argentine,” but Leo is so overdue and he could ride a “Revolutionary” sweep to the podium.

Best Actress:

The array of strong contenders here is mind-blowing. You have past winners Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, and Cate Blanchett. You have rising star Keira Knightley in the costume drama “The Duchess.” And then you have Kate Winslet possibly competing against herself in “The Reader” and “Revolutionary Road.” The five time nominee finally gets her award for the latter.

Best Supporting Actor:

Even before his unexpected death, people were wowing over his masterful and unique portrayal of the Joker in “The Dark Knight.” It will be very hard, we feel, for the Academy to pass up this opportunity to pay tribute to a great character actor, the talented Heath Ledger.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Ryan came so close to winning this past year as the mother of a kidnapped child in the edgy “Gone Baby Gone.” Now, she’s got a wonderful part in Eastwood’s Best Picture contender “The Changeling.” And we all know how good Eastwood is at getting his actors hardware.

Best Director:

Sorry Clint Eastwood. But you do already have two Best Director trophies. It’s time to make way for a new face to join the two-win club. Sam Mendes will triumph for “Revolutionary Road.”

Best Picture:

And it all comes down to this, right? “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” for its innovative storyline and probable stylish feel, has a shot. And we foresee a tight two film race. But in the end, we think 2008 will see a single film plow through everything in its path, reminiscent of a “Schindler’s List,” “English Patient,” or appropriately, “Titanic.” Yes, it is very difficult to be the early front runner and it’s likely “Revolutionary Road” will carry that burden the entire way through. But somehow, with that creative team on board, we think they have the goods to go all the way. “Revolutionary Road” is your 2009 Oscar Best Picture winner.

11:47: No Country takes Best Picture. In the end, it looks like the pundits were right. No Country swept all the guilds and was in the frontrunner’s position the entire season. It might not have been a typical Oscar film, but it was good enough this year. As they said in the movie, You Can’t Stop What’s Coming. See you next year when we hope to finish better than 15 for 24.

11:38: Cohen brothers win for best director.

11:31: Best actor goes to Daniel Day-Lewis. Not so surprising. What is odd is that there was no standing ovation.

11:25: Diablo Cody wins for best original screenplay. What an amazing win. This was her first screenplay, and she’s already an Oscar winner. Here’s looking forward to many more great works from her.

11:20: Documentary Short Subject goes to Freeheld and Documentary Feature goes to Taxi to the Dark Side. Taxi was not expected to win.

11:09: Atonement takes best score. This is a well deserved award. Marianell also composed the beautiful piano music for Pride and Prejudice three years ago.

11:02: Now No Country may really be in trouble. It’s lost sound, editing, and cinematography. The presumptive Best Picture winner only has one award so far. Could there be a monumental upset in the making?

11:00: There Will Be Blood takes best cinematography.

10:51: Once wins best song for “Falling Slowly.” It looks like the curse of the multiple nominations prevails again. Same thing that happened to Dreamgirls happened to Enchanted this year. That’s three in a row for us.

10:44: The Counterfeiters takes best foreign film.

10:29: Bourne takes film editing. This could be a sign of weakness for No Country For Old Men. Usually, editing matches up with the eventual Best Picture winner.

10:27: The current tally is Bourne Ultimatum with 2 wins, La Vie En Rose with 2 wins, and no one else with more than one. No Best Picture nominee has more than one win so far. Dave just threw something at his TV screen when they showed Crash as the best picture winner.

10:09: Best actress goes to Marion Cotillard. Should have know. The actress with the most dramatic physical transformation always seems to win this category.

10:05: Sound mixing goes to Bourne. This means that Kevin O’Connell has now lost 20 times in this category. Doesn’t the academy have any sense of decency?

10:01: Sound editing goes to Bourne. We missed this, but it might bode well for our prediction of Bourne in the editing category.

9:51: Do we really need an overview of how Oscar ballots are counted? On behalf on East Coasters everywhere, Academy, please let us go to sleep at a reasonable hour tonight.

9:46: Adapted screenplay goes to the Cohen brothers. That was expected.

9:35: Best supporting actress goes to Tilda Swinton. That was sort of unexpected.

9:28: Peter and the Wolf takes best animated short. We’re happy to get a split in the shorts categories. as they are usually simply a toss-up.

9:28: Best live action short goes to Le Mozart Des Pickpickets. Didn’t see that one coming.

9:23: Oscar salute to binoculars and periscopes.

9:13: Best Supporting Actor goes to Javier Bardem. This was expected but he sure looked surprised.

9:10: Art direction goes to Sweeney Todd. We should have gone with the film with the most lavish sets.

9:06:Golden Compass takes best visual effects. We are completely baffled here.

9:03: Atonement’s loss in costume design doesn’t boast well for its art direction chances, since it was more heavily favored in costumes. We’ll have to wait and see…

9:00: Amy Adams is going a great job. Time to add Enchanted to the Netflix queue.

8:56: Best makeup goes to La Vie En Rose. We’re 2 for 3.

8:53: Ratatouille wins. This almost makes up for last year when Cars lost to Happy Feet.

8:48: 80 years of Oscar? Can the filler and give me the best supporting actress award. Looks like we’re in for a long evening of meaningless tributes as the Academy pats itself on the back for achieving it’s 80th anniversary

8:42: Elizabeth takes costume design. Not a good start for our predictions. It seems like period pieces win this every year. We should have known given that Marie Antoinette won last year. Does this mean that Sweeney Todd will take art direction?

8:41: Costume Design…come on Sweeney Todd.

8:38: Dave: Well, Jon Stewart is a vast improvement over speed talking Ellen Degeneres, but REALLY, is Billy Crystal really that busy to not host this show?! Julia: John Stewart is a great choice in this election-focused year. I vote for him!

Welcome to Oscar Frenzy’s third annual LIVE OSCAR BLOG. We’ll keep you up to date on all the awards, the memorable quotes, and the surprises. Here we go. We’re just a few minutes away now…

Yes, if you REALLY want to win your Oscar pool, we suggest you pick “No Country For Old Men.” It’s better to be safe than sorry. However, as the hours tick away to the start of the big show, we are sensing at least the possibility of a monumental upset.

Here’s the theory behind it all. “No Country” was a film that voters by and large respected, but they did not love it. It also was extremely violent, which may turn it off to female voters. Because people recognize it is a solid film, they will give it something. That something is the Best Director’s prize to Joel and Ethan Coen. But now where do their votes for Best Picture go?

If they vote completely for their hearts, it would be “Juno.” But there is still this stigma out there that a comedy doesn’t deserve to win Best Picture. Voters don’t want their vote to be wasted, so they’ll look elsewhere. Older voters especially won’t embrace “Juno,” as it speaks more to our current generation. Again, we ask the question. Where do the votes go? We have a simple two word answer for you. George Clooney.

That’s right. The basis for this theory is premised on the man, not the movie. Clooney is so wildly popular right now. He’s even on the cover of Time magazine as “The Last Movie Star.” Guys like him and girls like him. He’s just so naturally cool and his pursuit of justice in Darfur and other worthy causes just make him more endearing. Think about it. Are women really going to vote for ‘No Country” or “There Will Be Blood?” They may well flock to George Clooney.

For this theory to materialize though, there has to be enough thinning of support for the other films. And that’s why we’re just not comfortable making this an official prediction. “Atonement” probably doesn’t get much support, but a lot of people LOVE “Blood” and think it’s a masterpiece. Many will also go with their feelings and support “Juno.” The end result of this is a split of the anti “No Country” vote which kills “Clayton’s” chances. In our minds, the single biggest factor is whether the love for “Juno” translates into actual votes. If it does, then “No Country” takes it. If not, then keep your eyes open for a true shocker when the final envelope is opened tonight.