This is an old article. Please visit our December predictions for an updated analysis.

Here at Oscarfrenzy, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to next year’s awards. Whereas 2005/2006 marked the year of the socially-conscious, small budget independent film, this next year will likely signal a return to traditional big studio, big star, big budget Hollywood movie-making. We’ll take an in-depth look at Best Picture and offer bold predictions for all the major categories.

BEST PICTURE:

The nominees will be…

Breaking and Entering (The Weinstein Company)
The Departed (Warner Bros)
Flags of Our Fathers (Dreamworks/Paramount)
The Good Shepherd (Universal)
Little Children (New Line)

“Breaking and Entering” stars Jude Law and Juliette Binoche and is directed by Anthony Minghella (The English Patient, Cold Mountain). It is the story about an encounter between a thief and an architect which somehow forces the architect to reevaluate his life. Minghella has been brilliant in every film he’s directed and the Academy may reward him this year, three years after he got snubbed for the vastly underrated Cold Mountain. The story sounds rich and complex and could have a similar impact as The Constant Gardener. May be a little too small for the win, however.

“The Departed” is Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited remake of the Hong Kong thriller “Infernal Affairs.” It stars a dream cast of Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, and Jack Nicholson. For those not familiar, the story revolves around two spies, an undercover police detective and a gangster, who must infiltrate each other’s organization. When their identities are compromised, each must scramble to reveal the other first before they are caught. Scorsese has received Best Picture nods for his last two films (Gangs of New York, The Aviator), so another nomination seems extremely plausible. The subject matter, however, may not be “important” enough to win the ultimate prize. It’ll be close, but we’ll predict Marty to be a bridesmaid once again.

“Flags of Our Fathers” features another director who’s garnered Best Picture nominations for his last two movies, the legendary Clint Eastwood (Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby). It’s the story about the lives of the men who raised the flag at Iwo Jima during World War II. Eastwood’s been such an effective and efficient director he’s basically surpassed Speilberg as the King of Hollywood. Needless to say, it would seem crazy to bet against him. Somehow though, I have my doubts “Flags” will walk away with Best Picture. A mere two years after Million Dollar Baby - it just seems too good to be true, even for bulletproof Dirty Harry. Besides, war movies seem a little disfavored in recent years, after a slew of mediocre offerings including The Alamo, The Last Samurai, and Troy.

“Little Children” is obviously the sleeper choice here. Starring Kate Winslet and Jennifer Connelly, it is the story about suburban mothers in a pristine neighborhood who raise their children up to go to Harvard or Yale. One day, one of them starts to have an affair with a lawyer, who is living a secret life of his own. Hmmm. Sounds a little like Desperate Housewives. The story, based on a well reviewed book by the author of Election (Tom Perrota), is half comedy and half drama. Todd Field, who directed 2001 Best Picture nominee “In the Bedroom” is at the helm. It probably has no chance to win the movie of the year, but a story like this can add some much needed spice to a Best Picture race.

Last, but certainly not least is “The Good Shepherd,” directed by Robert De Niro and starring Matt Damon and Angelina Jolie. It is the story of a man who devotes his entire life to the CIA. The film focuses, in large part, on the costs and sacrifaces he endures to his personal and professional life as he helps to build the organization to what it is today. Part fact and part fiction, “The Good Shepherd” is bound to generate some controversy given today’s political climate. Matt Damon has been on the verge of a truly breakout role and Robert De Niro may follow in the footsteps of George Clooney, Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood, and Kevin Costner as actors turned great directors. Going head to head against Scorsese and Eastwood may seem daunting, but we’re placing our bets that the Academy will want to honor a fresh face. The story as well, about one man’s journey and struggles, is the type often worthy of Oscar recognition (A Beautiful Mind, Forrest Gump). We’ll predict “The Good Shepherd” to be the 2006/2007 Best Motion Picture of the Year.

Other Predictions:

Best Director: Robert De Niro for “The Good Shepherd.” (runner-up: Martin Scorsese-”The Departed.”)

Best Actor: Matt Damon for “The Good Shepherd” (runner-up: Jude Law-”Breaking and Entering.”)

Best Actress: Naomi Watts for “The Painted Veil.” (runner-up: Kate Winslet for “Little Children.”)

Best Supporting Actor: Albert Finney for “A Good Year.”

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Connelly for “Little Children.”

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

Well, it was not an especially great year for us predictions-wise, but not terrible either. As you may know, our final tally was 16/24. Good enough to tie Entertainment Weekly, but probably not good enough to help you win your Oscar pool. Oh well, all you can do is learn from your mistakes. This is our first year at predicting the Oscars and despite falling a little short of our own expectations, we did post a respectable score, better than many other expert sites. In this edition, we take a quick look back at the categories we missed and offer some lessons to build upon for next year.

Best Picture: Crash over Brokeback Mountain
We don’t feel too bad about this one, since most everyone picked Brokeback and it flat out deserved to win. But we should have paid closer attention to the word on the street. Interviews with Academy voters revealed a large number of people voting for Crash. We also should have picked up on the fact that Brokeback would not sit favorably with a lot of the Academy’s older members.

Best Cinematography: Memoirs of a Geisha over Brokeback Mountain

Again, this was an upset few people got. We were right that cinematography often goes to the Best Picture favorite, but we underestimated the Academy’s support for Brokeback Mountain. We should have been clued in by the fact that Brokeback got only 8 nominations, not including art direction or costume design. Besides, Memoirs of a Geisha really had amazing cinematography. It was probably the best part of the movie.

Best Documentary Short Subject: A Note of Triumph over God Sleeps in Rwanda

Very, very few people picked this stunner. In retrospect, it looks like the depressing movies (Rwanda, Death of Kevin Carter, Mushroom Club) split the vote, allowing “Triumph” to well…triumph. We’ll consider this possibility in the future more.

Best Original Score: Brokeback Mountain over Memoirs of a Geisha

This one really surprised us. Williams is well respected and the Geisha score is exotic and filled with beautiful cello music by acclaimed cellist Yo Yo Ma. But the Brokeback theme was more recognizable, and Gustavo Santaollala is an up and coming composer who has never won yet. The Academy likes to acknowledge new, talented composers in this category.

Best Original Song: “It’s Hard Out There for a Pimp” over “In the Deep”

“Pimp” was the song everyone was talking about. In a way, voters like controversy, especially in the lesser categories. The most Academy-friendly song hasn’t win this category in a long time. U2’s “The Hands that Built America,” Enya’s “May it Be,” and Josh Groban’s “Believe” all lost. We should definitely look for the underdog in this category.

Best Sound: King Kong over Walk the Line

We really should have got this one. There was a reason Kong was nominated and favored to win visual effects and sound editing. The three categories often go hand in hand. Besides, sound usually goes to either a loud, effects-driven movie, or a Best Picture contender (often a musical). Walk the Line was neither.

Best Animated Short: The Moon and the Sun over One Man Band

We should have detected the disfavor toward Pixar (One Man Band) when no Pixar picture was nominated in the Animated Feature category. Besides, Moon and Sun was the best story and the most talked about film in the category.

Best Live Action Short: Six Shooter over The Runaway

The Runaway seemed like the better film, but Six Shooter had more buzz and a major actor starring in it (Brendan Gleeson). Though the Runaway may be a more emotional story, the images in Six Shooter stay with you for a long time, an important characteristic for a good short film.

It was the worst decision the Academy has ever made in its seventy-eight year history. The American movie-going public has a right to be outraged. They will be talking about this night for years and decades to come.

Brokeback Mountain won every single major award leading up to the Oscars. Over 70 critics’ associations. The Golden Globe. The Bafta. But not the Academy Award. Some may think this is actually somehow cool, that the Academy chose to go in its own direction. But really, it’s not. The Oscars are an AWARDS show, and their purpose is to reward the Best Motion Picture of the Year, not the one they personally liked best, or more importantly, the one they felt most comfortable with. When voters can no longer make this distinction, it virtually renders the awards process moot.

Sure, Crash was a good film, maybe even a very good film. But how many people can honestly say in their hearts that it was a more deserving or Oscar-worthy film than Brokeback Mountain? The appeal of Crash was that it was a cleverly put together story that made the audience think. It definitely had its moments. But Brokeback was more than about “moments.” it was a complete, emotional story from beginning to end that engaged the audience and transported them into another world. It was movie driven by its sublime directing and unforgettable powerhouse performances. No offense to Crash, but that was a movie arguably fueled by brilliant editing more than anything else.

If you look at previous Oscars, Brokeback, a touching and tragic love story, is exactly the kind of film that goes on to win Best Picture. Remember, the Academy usually goes with movies of the heart rather than movies of the mind. That’s why A Beautiful Mind beat out Lord of the Rings and Million Dollar Baby edged out The Aviator last year. That’s also why Shakespeare in Love shocked Saving Private Ryan many, many years ago. Speaking of which, those who compare the Crash upset to Shakespeare in Love are misguided. Shakespeare actually won the Golden Globe for Best comedy/musical and came in with the most nominations. It may not have possessed the seriousness of Saving Private Ryan, but it was a movie that connected with people and their emotions, much like Brokeback should have (and probably did) with this year’s voting Academy.

So why did Brokeback get left hung out to dry? Pure and simple. People did not feel comfortable giving it Best Picture because of its subject matter. I’m not saying necessarily that Hollywood is homophobic, because we all know how many gays there are in Hollywood, but look at who constitutes a large proportion of your voting members. Older, fairly conservative men and women, likely in their 60s and 70s. Brokeback Mountain is not their type of movie. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of them didn’t even completely finish watching the screener tapes.

No, they didn’t want to see Brokeback Mountain win Best Picture, because as you know, that would annoit it with an aura of movie immortality and drive Box office totals past the $100 million mark easily. So they needed a second option. Crash was just about the most perfect choice there could be. It was a small, independent film that also dealt with a controversial subject: racism. But wait a minute. Wait a minute here. What’s REALLY so controversial about Crash? The message of the movie is pretty much that racism and racial stereotypes are bad. Is that a message that is really controversial? No. Brokeback Mountain, on the other hand, embodied the message that homosexuals should be regarded the same as everyone else, and should not have to live in a world marred by intolerance, sometimes brutal intolerance. I should think that the latter would be a riskier proposition to put onto film.

The bottom line is that the Academy should be ashamed of itself. They didn’t select the Best Picture of the Year and they know it. My biggest hope is that people all over the world will recognize the Academy’s decision for what it really is. We, the moviegoers of America, know in our hearts and minds what is the best movie of the year. The only thing that really should matter with the Academy’s decision is whether or not you win your office pool. Until next year…