Summer’s almost halfway over, which means the season of serious films will finally soon be upon us. Since most of the predicted Oscar contenders have yet to be fully screened, there is not a whole lot to report. Nonetheless, marketing strategies, insider word of mouth, festival buzz, and other factors have helped us to narrow the field. Let’s take a closer look at who’s ahead, who’s dropping, and who’s still hanging around in the prestigious Best Picture sweepstakes.

The favorite at this point has got to be Dreamgirls. The advance buzz has been terrific and a limited screening of select scenes reportedly drew raves. Furthermore, after a couple years of relatively depressing, issue-driven films, the Academy mgiht be ready to embrace a rousing, show-stopping musical. Closely behind Dreamgirls are Eastwood’s Flags of Our Fathers and De Niro’s CIA drama The Good Shepherd. Though skeptics doubt Eastwood can follow up Million Dollar Baby with a second Best Picture win, if anyone can do it, it’s the Clint. One question here is whether audiences are up for another war movie, especially given the state of current events.

Goya’s Ghosts, directed by Milos Forman and starring Javier Bardem and Natalie Portman, is probably next on the step ladder. One obstacle dogging this picture is whether or not it will be finished in time, being that it is still currently in production. Forman, as well, could be a little rusty being that he has not directed a film since Man on the Moon.

Two fillms that were once high on the Best Picture radar, but now sinking fast, are Scorsese’s The Departed and Steven Zaillian’s All the King’s Men remake. Early reviews of Marty’s gang thriller reveal it to be unfocused and in need of better editing. While this is typical for Scorsese films, this is never a good sign. All the King’s Men, meanwhile, suffers from the fact that the original already won a Best Picture. That, along with the film’s release date being pushed back twice do not bode well.

Speaking of also-rans, perhaps the biggest one is Sofia Coppola’s Marie Antoinette, which got trashed at Cannes. We could have told you so. Something about Kristen Dunst as the French ‘heroine’ just didn’t seem right.

Two of the biggest question marks of the fall season are Mel Gibson’s Mayan epic Apocalypto and Emilio Estevez’s Bobby. While both certainly have the potential of being Best Picture material, they also run the risk of catering only to a select audience. With Apocalypto, the big question may be whether or not this is more of an adventure film or a historical epic. The fact that Passion of the Christ was passed over a few years back could possibly help Gibson with Academy voters.

Among the already released films, only three have generated substantial Oscar buzz. First is United 93, which is topping a lot of analysts’ early Best Picture lists. Don’t count on it. Voters have a short memory these days. Furthermore, the overall reaction to 93 was more a feeling of respect rather than actual passion. Sure, the critical response was superb, but can you really imagine any critic bashing that film, especially since it played out like a memorial tribute to the victims? Likewise, don’t expect Oliver Stone’s World Trade Center to figure into the race. As evidenced by United 93’s lackluster box office, audiences aren’t ready to revisit 9-11 yet, and WTC hits even more closely to home.

The second and third, respectively, are A Prairie Home Companion and An Inconvenient Truth. Prairie Home opened to mixed reviews and despite solid performances, it’ll likely be forgotten in a few months (if not already). Meanwhile, Al Gore’s global warming horror film is a real masterpiece. Unfortunately, its recognition is already set in stone - something they call Best Documentary Feature.

Looking for some sleepers? Here’s three. In the spirit of 21 Grams and starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, Babel got a rocking reception at Cannes. Could it be too indie for Oscar though? Sometimes tells me after last year’s unbelievable indie crop, this year’s Academy might veer back toward big studio offerings, which means bad news for movies like Babel, The Painted Veil, and The Last King of Scotland. Anthony Minghella’s Breaking and Entering could sneak in there though, particularly since Minghella was so viciously snubbed for Cold Mountain. A final sleeper pick is Christopher Nolan’s The Prestige, about two rival magicians engaged in a destructive war. Buzz has been great, but is the story Oscar material? A cast featuring Christian Bale, Hugh Jackman, and critical darling Scarlett Johansson certainly helps.

Well, so what’s it all mean? We certainly have a long ways to go, but as the buzz starts to slowly mount, we can begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Something tells me Oscar will go in a fresh direction this year. Typical Oscar-friendly costume dramas, historical set pieces, and depressing fare may get shoved aside for more unusual and creative offerings. With that said, let’s take a look at OscarFrenzy’s Sweet Sixteen - sixteen films likely to play a major role in this year’s Best Picture showdown. Here we go (in alphabetical order):

Apolcalypto
Babel
Bobby
Breaking and Entering
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
For Your Consideration
Goya’s Ghosts
Little Children
Lucky You
The Good German
The Good Shepherd
The Last King of Scotland
The Painted Veil
The Prestige
Volver

Seven months to go, folks. Wow! And we’re only getting started.

Before its release, A Prairie Home Companion was hyped as the first Oscar worthy film of the year. Although it opened to decent, but not amazing reviews, some experts are still calling it a contender due to its high profile fans.

After seeing A Prairie Home Companion this weekend, I cannot imagine that it has a real chance of winning best picture. The movie’s major problem is that is has the pace of its famous radio show namesake. It consists of a series of bits tied together by Garrison Keillor’s somewhat funny observations. There is a weak plot in the background that is supposed to tie the story together but it is difficult to follow and rather unbelievable. When watching A Prairie Home Companion, I felt like I was listening to a senile old relative telling me a story about the good ol’ days.

The advantage of having such an aimless plot is that great acting performances really stand out. A Prairie Home Companion is stocked with possible best supporting actor and actress nominees. Here are my top five candidates:

1. Meryl Streep: Streep is stellar in A Prairie Home Companion. She sings well and is the emotional center of the film. Most impressively, she manages to boost the performances of Lindsay Lohan and Lily Tomlin. Her acting is so convincing that you truly believe that they are a family.

2/3. John C. Reilly and Woody Harrelson: If there was an Oscar for best duo, these two would win. These two singing cowboys are hilarious and also bring surprising emotional depth to their roles. When they are on screen, you forget to check your watch. This is quite a feat in a film that makes you very conscious of your seat’s padding.

4. Garrison Keillor: Keillor, in his first acting role, comes across as immensely likeable. His dialogue and movements feel natural. He also manages to hold his own during his many interactions with Streep’s character.

5. L.Q. Jones: Jones has a very memorable role as Chuck Akers. The 79-year-old Jones has 149 IMDB credits spanning from 1955 to 2006. This would be a perfect opportunity to recognize him for a great career.

Other possible contenders: Virginia Madsen and Kevin Kline have both been recognized by others reviewers for their performances. Since they are both part of the ridiculous side plot, I could not bring myself to put them on my top five list.

Months later, we are still smarting from Brokeback Mountain’s loss to Crash. Instead of reanalyzing the many reasons why Crash won, I thought it would be fun to take a trip down memory lane to see what other deserving best picture nominees have failed to win the Oscar in the past decade.

1996: The English Patient Beats Fargo
Did anyone actually like the English Patient? The English Patient is the equivalent of cinematic cough syrup. Everyone felt obligated to like it because it has all of the hallmarks of an Oscar epic. However, although the English Patient boasts stunning cinematography and strong performances, it is also incredibly dull. The director managed to take a riveting book and turn it into a snoozefest. In contrast, Fargo, “a homespun murder story,” was a well-told, quirky film that is hard to turn away from. Its unconventional plot and setting make it in many ways the anti-English Patient.

1998: Shakespeare in Love Beats Saving Private Ryan
I have no idea what happened in 1998. Saving Private Ryan is one of the greatest war movies ever. Shakespeare in Love is a decent romantic comedy. It is nowhere near as good as any of the other movies nominated: Elizabeth, Life Is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, and The Thin Red Line. Shakespeare in Love is about as good as Kate and Leopold. It was fun, but not Oscar-worthy.

2000: Gladiator Trumps Traffic
Although Gladiator is a TNT favorite, it is not a great movie. The story is manipulative and overdone. In contrast, Traffic tells an interesting story in a novel way. Traffic pioneered the intersecting political storyline style of Crash and did so in a much more subtle way than the recent Oscar winner.

2002: Chicago Beats Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
When compared to classic musicals like Singing in the Rain, Chicago does not stand up. The signing is decent but not exceptional and there are way too many dance numbers. The only reason Chicago won is because it was seen as ushering in a new era of musicals. Four years later, we are still waiting for another critically acclaimed major musical feature. Dreamgirls may be that film, but it is too early to tell. Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers was a much better movie and should have taken home the award. In fact, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers also was better than the bloated, Oscar winning Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

2003: The King Stomps Mystic River
I love the Lord of the Rings series. That being said, most LOTR fans can attest to the fact that The Return of the King is the weakest movie in the trilogy. The Return of the King has one of the longest endings of any movie in recent memory. It could have easily been cut in half. In 2003, the best film was not Return of the King but instead Mystic River. Mystic River boasted great performances by Sean Penn and Tim Robbins. In addition, unlike The Return of the King, Mystic River was a very well-edited film. It tells a compelling story, effectively and efficiently. Although Mystic River was 2 hrs and 17 minutes long, each minute was used wisely.

Final Thoughts: It appears that the Oscar goes to the wrong film approximately every other year. Furthermore, the Oscar is also more likely to be misdirected in even years (Example: 1996, 1998, 2002, 2006). With this in mind, I look forward to having a worthy Oscar best picture winner in 2007.