OscarFrenzy unveils revised Best Picture nominees

This past March, OscarFrenzy revealed its five selections for 2007 Best Picture. Now that we’re in the heat of the summer, it’s time to revisit our predictions. 2006 was, for all intensive purposes, the year of the small film. Best Picture nominees such as Brokeback Mountain, Crash, and Capote came from such lesser known studios as Focus Features and Lionsgate. We believe this coming year will mark the return of the heavyweights. Universal. Paramount. Warner Brothers. You can’t keep big money down for long. So without further adieu, let’s usher in the contenders.

BREAKING AND ENTERING: We predicted this Anthony Minghella/Jude Law collaboration in March and we’re sticking to it. Advance buzz has been positive and we think the Academy will embrace Minghella once agan after passing over Cold Mountain. A Weinstein Company product, this will likely be the smallest film among the nominees, but remember, there’s always one “In the Bedroom” or “Lost in Translation.” This could be it.

DREAMGIRLS: This takes the slot formerly occupied by The Departed, which has been looking weak after getting pushed up from December to October. Dreamgirls is simply too big to ignore. The star-studded cast of Beyonce, Jaime Foxx, and Eddie Murphy features a little something for everyone. Also, the rags to riches, rise to the top story, American-Idol style, seems like a perfect distraction from the harsh world we live in. On top of it all, the catchy movie title doesn’t hurt either.

FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS: Again, we’re sticking to our guns here. Numerous analysts have opined that there’s no way Eastwood can make three consecutive Best Picture nominees in a row (Mystic River, Million Dolar Baby, Flags of Our Fathers?) We disagree. The man just keeps getting better and better with age. And the Academy LOVES him. Also, despite a complicated shoot, the word on the street is that the production wrapped smoothly and on schedule. Clint better dust off that tuxedo again.

THE GOOD SHEPHERD: Yup, we’re definitely keeping this gem on our top five list. Matt Damon recently commented that he’s practically in every scene of this movie. From our standpoint, that sounds like a good thing. Too many films lack focus. This one seems intent on tellng its story the right way, from beginning to end through character development. Sure, we have some doubts about De Niro as director, but we’re betting he gets this one right. As the story deals with the history of the CIA, we imagine there will be controversy, but controversy has often helped a movie, such as A Beautiful Mind. Last we heard, there are no sexually ambivalent cowboys in sight.

UNITED 93: This takes the place of Little Children, which I feel will be rewarded for its individual performances rather than the film. Okay okay, I know I’ve ragged on this film ever since it debuted. But everyone’s allowed to have a change of heart, right? There’s a few factors at play here. First, usually there’s at least one pre-summer film that factors into the race. United 93 is the best bet. Besides, DVD campaigns are extremely powerful nowadays and the September DVD release will surely generate momentum. Overall, critics loved this movie and something tells me that this inspirational tale of heroism will sneak into the Best Picture race.

So there you have it. Our fearless, revised Best Picture nominees. Once again, they are:

Breaking and Entering - The Weinstein Company

Dreamgirls - Dreamworks/Paramount

Flags of Our Fathers - Dreamworks/Warner Bros.

The Good Shepherd - Universal

United 93 - Universal

Stay tuned folks. In a few weeks, we will venture where no other Oscar site has dared to go. We will tell you which film will take home the Oscar for Best Picture on February 25, 2007.

Oscar Foreign Language Film Rules Changes

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced two minor rules changes on Friday.

First, films no longer have to be made in the language of their home country to be nominated. So, if a movie is made in Poland, but the actors speak in Spanish, it can be nominated by Poland for best foreign language film. This change was made because last year an Italian film in Middle Eastern languages could not be nominated.

Second, New Yorkers can now help decide which foreign-language films make it to the list of potential nominees. Previously, a Los Angeles-based group chose which films got on the list. Now, in a two-phase process, both New Yorkers and Los Angelenos will weigh in. In the first phase, a “several-hundred-member Los Angeles-based group” will weight in. In the second phase, “ten randomly selected members from phase one, ten Los Angeles-based members not on the original committee, and ten New York-area members” will vote (AMPAS).

What is more interesting than what has been added is what was left out. For Your Consideration points out that the requirement “that each country be allowed to submit only one film per year, and that a film be the product of only one distinct country” turns the best foreign film award into a “Miss Cinema Universe pageant.” Nuno, in the Oscar Watch comments section, argues that a good next step for the Academy would be to “review and reinforce the rule that members should see the final nominees before voting.”

If each Academy member actually watched the nominated films, we would have an easier time predicting the winners. Many have suggested that one of reasons why Brokeback Mountain lost best picture might be because few voters actually sat down and watched the film.