It has been a relatively weak year for movies, so the lack of powerful acting performances should come as little surprise. This coming January, voters may have a difficult time jotting down five names for both the lead actor and lead actress categories. Sad. Let me put it this way, when Sasha Baron Cohen starts generating buzz for what is essentially an extended (although extremely hilarious) reality show, you know you’ve got a problem.

In previous Oscar seasons, strong frontrunners have usually emerged by Thanksgiving. Last year, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix were both viable winners and raved by critics everywhere. In 2004, Jamie Foxx was already preparing his acceptance speech for “Ray.” Sean Penn, Bill Murray, and Johnny Depp headlined a talented contingent in ‘03. The actress category tends to reveal itself later in the year, but Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, among others, in their respective years, were at least widely mentioned heading into December.

What do we have now? In the lead actor race, it seems to be Forest Whitaker vs. Peter O’Toole. Though Whitaker’s performance was masterful, it is arguably a supporting one. Furthermore, his film, “Last King of Scotland,” has quickly fallen off the Oscar radar. The word on O’Toole is that he might win less for the quality of his actual performance, and more for the fact that he is Peter “Freaking” O’Toole. As you all know, the Oscars are notorious for make-up awards. Lately, Will Smith has been gaining momentum for “The Pursuit of Happyness” and Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond.” But none of these films showcase these actors’ best performances. If Dicaprio couldn’t qualify with “Catch Me if You Can” in 2002 but gets in with “Blood Diamond” in ‘06, you know you’re dealing with a weak field.

The actress race seems to have a more solid frontrunner in Helen Mirren (”The Queen”). The question is whether she can stay the course. Other potential challengers are Meryl Streep for “The Devil Wears Prada” and Judi Dench for “Notes on a Scandal.” Could it be that after years of awarding youth and popularity, the Academy is finally returning to its roots? Well, Penelope Cruz and Kate Winslet may have something to say about that. Cruz appears to be going heavy on the publicity, which always helps, though we wonder if the Academy will award a performance that’s in a foreign language. Winslet’s “Little Children” has disappeared fast, but voters may remember her past nominations for “Titanic,” “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” “Iris,” and “Sense and Sensibility.”

Probably the main reason the lead acting races haven’t caught on is because most of the contenders are not from likely Best Picture nominees. A look back at the last four Oscars indicates that only three winners were from films not nominated for Best Picture (Witherspoon, Theron, Berry). Among those three, at least two of the films were bona fide contenders for nominations (”Walk the Line” and “Monster’s Ball”). Though some may disagree, it seems unlikely that films such as “Venus,” “Last King of Scotland,” “Notes on a Scandal,” “The Devil Wears Prada,” and “The Pursuit of Happyness” will crack the top five.

But is still November, so as they say, anything can happen. A sleeper candidate can always emerge thanks to recognition from a critic’s association. We say keep an eye on Matt Damon for “The Good Shepherd” and Naomi Watts for “A Painted Veil.” Both have generated little to no buzz, but their films have yet to be released or even screened. As for more conventional picks, we’ll give O’Toole the edge over Whitaker for sentimental reasons and predict Winslet to upset Helen Mirren when all is said and done.

December is right around the corner and hopefully soon, we should be getting more answers instead of questions.

Every year, critics present one independent film with the “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” seal of crossover approval. The seal, given with the condescending tone normally associated with a Special Olympics medal ceremony, is meant to assure mainstream filmgoers that an indie is neither too urban nor gay to offend, and not too esoteric to confuse.

This year, critics have chosen to champion the inoffensive, yet thoroughly enjoyable road movie, “Little Miss Sunshine.” In it, a likeable family from Arizona, the Hoovers, drive their adorable, eight-year-old daughter Olive to San Diego so that she can compete in a children’s beauty pageant.

The film’s theme focuses on failure - how we accept defeat and how we soldier on in spite of it. But the writer Michael Anrndt handles this potentially morose material with a light, assured hand. The dialogue is breezy and tart, and the characters are keenly observed, if not particularly deep. Along the way, the characters bicker, but without any real malice. Problems are solved with a hug or a sixty-second long soliloquy about believing in yourself. But despite these sitcomish moments, the film never devolves into treacle.

The Hoover family patriarch Richard, played by Greg Kinnear, is a struggling, community college instructor, looking for a publisher for his personal improvement book. Despite the lack of success in his own life, he incessantly pushes his children to win, win, win at all costs. From what dark place does this otherwise typical man get his obsessive drive to win? We never know. It’s not that kind of movie.

Richard’s constant haranguing has strained his relationship with his teenage son Dwayne. However, while he claims to hate his father, the two share a similar drive to succeed; Dwayne has taken a vow of silence in order to focus himself on his goal of becoming an Air Force pilot. Does the film ever examine this interesting contradiction? No. What is it about flying that so inspires this young man? Again, we never know.

Accompanying the family is Uncle Frank, a Proust scholar who recently attempted suicide after losing both his job and his lover. Steve Carell gives Frank an affecting, wounded quality that the actor has never displayed before. One wonders if Carell might one day transcend his herky-jerky comedic style and follow in Bill Murray’s subtle dramatic footsteps.

Acting as a counter-weight to this dreary corp of Type As and walking wounded is Richard’s crass, fun-loving father, Edwin (played with understated panache by Alan Arkin). In one of the film’s most amusing scenes, he provides his teenage grandson with the following sage advice: “Fuck every woman you can, whenever you can… Fuck. Always.” To Edwin, Richard’s obsession with winning and losing is beside the point and potentially toxic to his children. Instead, Edwin believes in squeezing every drop of joy he can from this all too short life, even if that “joy squeezing” involves heroine and strip clubs.

The film’s ending drives this point home in a way that is simultaneously tender, hilarious and jaw-droppingly disturbing. I cannot describe it without ruining the surprise (or perhaps the shock), but it will likely be remembered as the funniest, truest scene of any American film this year.

We are rapidly approaching the heart of the Oscar season. In previous years, it is likely that at least one or two films will have reserved their spot in the AMPAS top five. Last year, golden boy George Clooney’s “Good Night and Good Luck,” fueled by excellent reviews and a timely subject matter, seemed like a sure bet to snag a Best Picture nomination. Two years ago, “Sideways” captured the imaginations of critics everywhere. The year before, there was hardly any doubt Clint Eastwood’s “Mystic River” would reap major awards.

What about this year? In a fairly weak year for movies overall, there is only one film we are confident in describing as a “lock” for a nomination. That would be Marty Scorsese’s bloody and delightful gangster drama “The Departed.” For an October release, “The Departed” has shown tremendous box office potential, easily surpassing the $100 million benchmark. As you know, box office prowess is an important (although not deal-breaking) criteria when it comes to Best Picture consideration. It also helps that “The Departed” has been met with across the board stellar reviews. After failing to score director or picture wins for “Gangs of New York” and “The Aviator,” Scorsese is a sentimental favorite for a “make-up” win. This could be his year. Speaking of which, when is the last time a director has seen three consecutive films nominated for Best Picture? If “The Departed” scores a nod, Scorsese will add another accolade to his resume.

Besides “The Departed,” are there any other films that qualify for “lock” status? If you believe a majority of the pundits, Stephen Frears’ “The Queen” is such a movie. We are not so sure. Although this thoughtful drama received superb reviews and features a brilliant performance by Best Actress frontrunner Helen Mirren, we still think it is too small to be considered a sure thing. Much will depend on how impressive some of the yet to be released films are. “The Queen” will likely find itself battling other independent type films, such as “Breaking and Entering,” “Bobby,” and “The Painted Veil.” If those films fail to make a lasting impression, “The Queen” will easily join “The Departed” on the top tier.

Some people describe “Dreamgirls” as a near lock, given its incredible buzz as well as the very solid recently released trailer. There is no doubt that “Dreamgirls” is probably your frontrunner and a bona fide contender. But no film can be considered a lock until its release (or at least until some of the early season critics’ awards start trickling in). The word is that “Dreamgirls” should be screened sometime in mid-November, so we’ll be able to better assess whether or not the advanced hype is legitimate.

Meanwhile, as we roll on, some films are generating momentum while others fall by the wayside. “Little Miss Sunshine” continues to climb up the charts. Despite being a summer release, it is still performing well in theaters and is ideally positioned for a December DVD release. With politics on people’s minds heading into the midterm elections, “Bobby” could be a sleeper hit. 2005 featured a plethora of politically charged films, such as “Good Night and Good Luck,” “Munich,” “Syriana,” and arguably even “Crash” and “Brokeback Mountain.” It shouldn’t be a surprise if “Bobby” finds a strong and passionate base of supporters.

On the other hand, early Oscar hopefuls “The Last King of Scotland” and “Little Children” are disappearing off the radar screen, due partially to their limited release. Despite overall solid reviews, both films are inexplicably only being marketed and touted for their lead performances (Forrest Whitaker, Kate Winslet). “United 93″ and “World Trade Center” also seem to be slipping out of people’s memories, although WTC will have an upcoming DVD release to give it a last and desperate boost. Still, it is important to remember that a good film can be easily resurrected thanks to a major award. A few years ago, “Finding Neverland” opened to good reviews, but quickly faded in people’s minds. In December, the National Board of Review selected it as its Best Picture. “Neverland” rode that momentum all the way to a Best Picture nomination.

Well, Scorsese and Warner Bros. may be able to relax a little more than most, but as we all know, anything can happen. It will be extremely interesting to see what unfolds as we forge into December and the forecast slowly transforms from murky into partially clear. Happy Oscar hunting, folks!