Screen Actor’s Guild Awards Predictions

Well folks, let’s hope this is not the only star-studded gala that we get to see this year. But you know some of these actors are thinking this is my best chance to deliver a moving speech. Now if they could only dispense with the stupid TV awards and get down to the races people really care about. Anyways, here are our predictions.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

This is a no-brainer. We’d love to see Clooney upset, as he really delivered a hell of an understated performance, but Day-Lewis has all the momentum right now.

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

The safe pick is Julie Christie, but remember that Cotillard did win the Golden Globe as well. She has the more showy performance and we just don’t think Christie is as beloved as last year’s Helen Mirren. A Cotillard win could pave the way for Ellen Page to take it at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

He’s got this in the bag, and he deserves it. One of the greatest movie villains ever.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Blanchett is so popular with the actors guild that she’ll edge out a possibly more deserving Amy Ryan and the brilliant Tilda Swinton.

Best ensemble in a motion picture - Hairspray

This will be the shocker of the night. “No Country” is the only Best Picture contender in this category, so it’s expected to win, but we think voters may bee “No Country” is more or less Javier Bardem’s show and award this prize to a true ensemble pic. If our prediction is correct, this news will spark instant reaction that “No Country” is showing signs of weakness in the Best Picture race. Wouldn’t that be something?

A raise of the glass to Heath Ledger

A raise of the glass to Heath Ledger, who, along with Leonardo DiCaprio, Ryan Gosling, and Christian Bale, hails as one of the most talented young actors of our time. He left us with many memorable and visceral roles such as Sonny Grotowski in “Monster’s Ball,” and William Thatcher in the admittedly fun “A Knight’s Tale.” Or, my personal favorite, the stout of heart Gabriel Martin in “The Patriot.” Anyone who has caught a glimpse of “The Dark Knight” teaser trailer will witness the most original and frighteningly psychotic comic-book villain, since, well, Jack. Then, of course, there’s his understated portrayal of Ennis Del Mar in “Brokeback Mountain.” I was one of the rare people that hated the movie, but thought Heath Ledger’s performance was one of the best and bravest performances in the history of cinema. Ever.

We welcome your remembrances of the tragic loss of one of the world’s finest young actors, Heath Ledger.

Gabriel Martin: “My pride is the only thing that they can’t take from me.”

Initial Reactions to Oscar Nominations 2008

The 2008 Oscar nominations are finally upon us, and boy were there some surprises. Let’s take a snapshot approach to the announcements, a quick analysis on what transpired, and what lies ahead.

“Into The Wild” got screwed. This is story #1. Here’s a beautifully made film that led the Critics’ Choice awards in nominations, and scored DGA, WGA, and SAG honors. This morning, not only was it left out of Best Picture, but Sean Penn got the shaft for his direction, Emile Hirsch was overlooked, and Catherine Keener too. Did “Into The Wild” peak too soon with its October release? Interestingly enough, no film released before November received a Best Pic nomination.

“Atonement,” thankfully, did better than expected. Despite little guild support, it scored a Best Picture nomination. Saoirse Ronan in supporting was also a pleasant surprise. “Atonement” was popular with the Globes and Baftas and we thought it was too little too late, but apparently those groups were on to something.

Awesome boost for Tommy Lee Jones. He missed out on Critics Choice, Globes, and SAG recognition, but nonetheless scored an Oscar nod. That is practically unbelievable.

“Juno’s” Jason Reitman gets a Best Director nod. Wow! This positions “Juno” in a better spot than “Little Miss Sunshine” from last year. If “No Country” and “Blood” split the dark and depressing vote, maybe “Juno” can score one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history.

Why no love for “Zodiac?” Not a single nomination. Yet, “Norbit” gets one. Please someone explain this.

“The Kite Runner” deserved a lot better than one original score nomination. Did anyone even bother to see that film?

Same goes for “Gone Baby Gone.” Extraordinary effort. Much greater than just showcasing Amy Ryan’s performance.

Once again, no film gets more than 8 nominations. So we have a wide open race. Best Picture looks like it’s between “No Country” and “Blood,” which each secured nods in the key categories of directing, writing, cinematography, and editing. Who’s got the edge? “Blood” is peaking right now, but “No Country” has more overall critical support. It could come down to the campaigns.

Biggest snub. Easily Angelina Jolie. Once again, people forgot “A Mighty Heart” because it came out in the summer. Voters’ attention spans get shorter and shorter each year.

So the Academy has spoken, and now let the races begin. It should be a remarkably competitive race, and show or no show, stay tuned to OscarFrenzy for the most reliable predictions you can put your money on.